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PDP8 REVISION: A STRATEGIC DIRECTION FOR SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TRANSITION IN VIETNAM

On April 15, 2025, the Prime Minister signed Decision No. 768/QĐ-TTg, approving the revised National Power Development Plan for the period 2021–2030, with a vision to 2050 (PDP8 Revision). This is a significant update that concretizes the orientation for energy development in line with socio-economic realities, global energy transition trends, and international commitments on climate change response.

Ensuring National Energy Security

The revised PDP8 sets the goal of ensuring sufficient electricity supply for national development, targeting an average GDP growth of 10% per year during 2026–2030 and 7.5% per year during 2031–2050. Commercial electricity output in 2030 is projected to reach 500.4–557.8 billion kWh and increase to 1,237.7–1,375.1 billion kWh by 2050. Peak power capacity is expected to reach 89,655–99,934 MW in 2030 and 205,732–228,570 MW by 2050.

The plan covers the entire territory of Vietnam and includes interconnection projects with neighboring countries, focusing on the development of power sources, transmission grids at 220 kV and above, and industries and services related to renewable and new energy.

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Figure: Types of power sources

Prioritizing Renewable Energy Development

A major highlight of the plan is the enhanced development of renewable energy. By 2030, renewable energy (excluding hydropower) is expected to account for 28–36% of total installed capacity, aiming for 74–75% by 2050. Installed capacity for solar power is projected at 46,459–73,416 MW; onshore and nearshore wind power at 26,066–38,029 MW; and offshore wind at 6,000–17,032 MW, potentially surpassing 100,000 MW by 2050.

By 2030, the goal is for 50% of office buildings and 50% of households to install rooftop solar systems for self-consumption, with no electricity sold to the national grid.

Reviving Nuclear Power and Developing Energy Storage Systems

The revised PDP8 reintroduces nuclear power into the planning framework, with the goal of commissioning the Ninh Thuan 1 and 2 plants between 2030–2035, totaling 4,000–6,400 MW. By 2050, an additional 8,000 MW of nuclear power is anticipated.

Simultaneously, the power system will be supported by pumped-storage hydropower (2,400–6,000 MW by 2030, 20,000 MW by 2050) and battery storage systems (10,000–16,300 MW by 2030, nearly 96,000 MW by 2050), ensuring stable operation with a high share of renewable energy integration.

Balanced Power Source Structure and Strict Coal Control

Total installed capacity for domestic demand is projected to reach 183,291–236,363 MW by 2030, with over 40% from renewable energy, 33,000–34,000 MW from hydropower, 4,000–6,400 MW from nuclear power, and around 5,000 MW from biomass and waste-to-energy.

Coal-fired power is tightly controlled, with only projects already included in the plan maintained until 2030, totaling 31,055 MW. These will gradually transition to biomass or ammonia. Gas-fired and LNG power projects will continue to receive investment, with a long-term orientation to transition to hydrogen when feasible.

Promoting Regional Integration and Building a Modern Grid

Vietnam aims to import 9,360–12,100 MW of electricity by 2030 (mainly from Laos and China), rising to approximately 14,688 MW by 2050. At the same time, electricity exports to Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia, etc., will be promoted, potentially reaching up to 10,000 MW by 2035.

To serve these goals, the plan proposes developing a modern transmission network with tens of thousands of kilometers of lines and hundreds of thousands of MVA in 220 kV and 500 kV substations, as well as establishing a nationwide high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission system.

First Integration of Just Energy Transition Mechanism

The revised PDP8 is the first power plan in Vietnam to officially integrate the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) – a global initiative supporting developing countries in transitioning to clean energy fairly and effectively.

Key commitments include:

  • No additional coal-fired power development after 2030;
  • Renewable energy accounting for over 70% of total installed capacity by 2050;
  • Close alignment of the power plan with the roadmap to net-zero emissions.

Investment Needs Exceeding USD 835 Billion by 2050

According to the revised PDP8, total investment in power generation and transmission from 2026 to 2050 is estimated at USD 835.4 billion, including USD 773.5 billion (92.6%) for power generation and USD 61.9 billion (7.4%) for transmission infrastructure.

Specifically:

  • 2026–2030: USD 136.3 billion (USD 118.2 billion for generation, USD 18.1 billion for transmission);
  • 2031–2035: USD 130 billion (USD 114.1 billion for generation, USD 15.9 billion for transmission);
  • 2036–2050: USD 569.1 billion (USD 541.2 billion for generation, USD 27.9 billion for transmission).

This substantial investment represents a major opportunity to mobilize both domestic and international resources, particularly for renewable energy and modern power infrastructure.

In conclusion, the revised PDP8 is a strategic and forward-looking roadmap for building a sustainable, modern, and environmentally friendly energy system aligned with global trends. It lays the foundation for Vietnam to mobilize investment and gradually realize its commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

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